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System Assessment

One of the ultimate outputs of the System Plan is the determination of potential locations and types of airport facilities that will be needed to serve North Central Texas through 2035. To accomplish a dependable assessment of the system needs, a comprehensive forecast was derived for the study period.

Forecasting

System Assessment

Methods developed to guide the System Plan provide a nonstandard approach to forecasting regional GA activity. Short-term forecasts support airport planning and personnel requirements; intermediate and long-term forecasts are used to plan major capital investments, including new airports.

The process uses a combination of market share and single variable regression analyses for forecasting the based jet aircraft and a multinomial linear regression for the non-jet based aircraft and the number of airport operations. It is unique to traditional methodologies such as market share, econometric, time series and simulation. To conform to FAA policy, NCTCOG compared the results to two sets of forecast data; the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) and airport master plans.

Additional considerations in the forecasting process were: airspace, ground access, service area population and employment, fuel prices, pilot population, risk factors and thresholds, NextGen technology, and relationships between based aircraft and operations at various airports.

Forecasting was applied to the following:

  • Airside Development Planning. Forecasting indicates future need for airside infrastructure such as length and strength of the runways and taxiways and navigational aids that impact safety and ease of access.
  • Landside Development Planning. Facilities influence activity. These include ramp space, fueling facilities, maintenance services and ties, and pilot and passenger amenities.
  • Financial Side Planning (Airport Business Planning). Various measures of aviation activity are directly or indirectly tied to the revenues and costs associated with operating an airport. The ability to calculate an anticipated return on investment is a factor in capital investment decisions.
  • Community Side Planning. The relationship between an airport and its adjacent communities is important in maintaining the sustainability of the facility and adjacent economic interests.
Subregional Based Non-Jet Aircraft Forecast
Subregion
Current Forecast Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
North 1,865 2,051 2,216 2,381 2,544 2,710
South 541 642 730 818 905 992
East 238 319 380 440 500 559
West 288 348 394 440 486 532
Central 1,314 1,436 1,567 1,700 1,832 1,963
Total 4,245 4,796 5,287 5,779 6,266 6,756

Subregional Based Jet Aircraft Forecast
Subregion
Current Forecast Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
North 69 82 98 118 141 167
South 18 22 27 32 39 47
East 1 2 3 5 8 11
West 2 3 4 5 7 8
Central 288 328 375 428 490 553
Total 378 436 507 589 684 787

Subregional Local Operations Forecast
Subregion
Current Forecast Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
North 407,297 429,369 457,053 486,083 515,770 547,067
South 143,639 149,843 160,890 172,386 184,369 196,673
East 93,288 101,080 107,868 114,822 122,033 129,488
West 59,800 66,302 71,528 76,901 82,410 87,987
Central 264,255 279,976 303,049 327,675 353,157 379,678
Total 968,279 1,026,569 1,100,388 1,177,867 1,257,740 1,340,893

Subregional Itinerant Operations Forecast
Subregion
Current Forecast Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
North 241,363 255,647 273,185 292,237 312,762 334,643
South 92,621 96,846 103,386 110,402 117,921 125,749
East 55,904 59,729 63,126 67,006 70,691 74,840
West 36,135 39,282 42,153 45,096 48,120 51,192
Central 290,504 310,052 335,005 362,668 393,234 424,781
Total 716,527 761,556 816,855 877,409 942,728 1,011,206

Needs Assessment

System Assessment

Three scenarios were developed to explore all feasible options for the purpose of determining airport system capacity. Considerations included current airport capacity, expansion and associated facility costs, projected demands in subregions, and the benefits and risks of public and private airports.

While many privately-owned airports maintain a strong presence and play a vital role in serving capacity needs in the region, they have proven to be historically susceptible to closure throughout the nation, including North Central Texas. Strong pressures, such as urban development, tax increases, and maintenance and facility costs, can cause a privately-owned facility to close. Not federally-obligated to remain open to the public, they may cease operations at any time, leaving aircraft owners looking for a new airport. As such, this study analyzed impacts of such facility losses affecting system capacity in 2035.

Scenario 1(a): A contracted aviation system which assumed that all privately-owned, public-use airports would close and landside expansion was constricted to current property.

Scenario 1(b): A contracted aviation system which assumed that all privately-owned, public-use airports would close with no landside expansion restrictions.

Scenario 2: All facilities remained open to consider the value of privately-owned facilities with no landside expansion restrictions.

Ultimately, the benchmark 2035 facility needs for scenarios became the basis for the recommended developments component of this study. While Scenario 2 showed that the existing system can likely accommodate the 2035 forecasted demand utilizing the current aviation system, examination of the 80 percent capacity levels indicate the need for a new publicly-owned airport and extensive landside development.

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